← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 65% | 56% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 4.84 | value: +20% |
| Bordeaux win | 15% | 19% | 6.49 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 76' | ⚽ | Giovani Lo Celso · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Presnel Kimpembe · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| coach days | 94.00 | 690.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| venue | Matmut Atlantique |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1647.30 | 2001.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.23 | 12.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.82 |
| league points | 43.00 | 87.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 90.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 2.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | 1.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.32 | 25.69 |
| state index | 0.35 | 1.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | 1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |