← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 73% | 78% | 1.34 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 5.67 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 10% | 7% | 9.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 567.00 | 141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1802.92 | 1550.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.67 | -21.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| league points | 66.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.74 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 22.58 |
| state index | 1.01 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.15 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |