← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amiens win | 36% | 41% | 2.70 | value: +10% |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 32% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Issa Cissokho · Amiens |
| 45' | ⚽ | Thomas Monconduit · Amiens |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jean-Eudes Aholou · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 62' | 🟨 | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ernest Seka · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 76' | 🟨 | Quentin Cornette · Amiens |
| 79' | ⚽ | Harisson Manzala · Amiens |
| 80' | 🟨 | Harisson Manzala · Amiens |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gaël Kakuta · Amiens |
| 90' | ⚽ | Idriss Saadi · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Licorne |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1237.00 | 659.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1553.30 | 1533.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.44 | -8.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.61 |
| league points | 37.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.53 | 29.42 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |