← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Fri, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 70% | 64% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.38 | fair |
| Dijon win | 12% | 17% | 8.28 | value: +44% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 26' | ⚽ | Naïm Sliti · Dijon |
| 31' | 🟨 | Rafael · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 37' | 🟨 | Chang-Hoon Kwon · Dijon |
| 50' | ⚽ (og) | Valentin Rosier · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 53' | ⚽ | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 55' | ⚽ | Naïm Sliti · Dijon |
| 70' | 🟨 | Tanguy Ndombélé · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 77' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 82' | ⚽ | Maxwel Cornet · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 11 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 2119.00 | 871.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1603.09 | 1831.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.88 | 10.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 42.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | 1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 28.42 | 24.96 |
| state index | 0.16 | 1.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |