← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 43% | 47% | 2.26 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 25% | 23% | 3.84 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Jules Koundé · Bordeaux |
| 9' | ⚽ | Martin Braithwaite · Bordeaux |
| 28' | 🟨 | Martin Braithwaite · Bordeaux |
| 43' | 🟨 | Giovanni Sio · Montpellier |
| 48' | 🟨 | Nicolas Cozza · Montpellier |
| 49' | ⚽ | François Kamano · Bordeaux |
| 56' | 🟨 | Paul Lasne · Montpellier |
| 78' | ⚽ | Soualiho Meïté · Bordeaux |
| 88' | ⚽ | Ellyes Skhiri · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days |
| 349.00 |
| 87.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1578.07 | 1551.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.53 | -27.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| league points | 46.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |