← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 40% | 40% | 2.42 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 31% | 34% | 3.16 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Jeremy Grimm · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 80' | 🟨 | Dimitri Foulquier · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 82' | ⚽ | Mathieu Debuchy · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jérémy Blayac · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rémy Cabella · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 652.00 | 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1541.94 | 1658.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.29 | 38.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| league points | 34.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | 1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 28.82 | 28.43 |
| state index | -0.37 | 0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |