← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 62% | 59% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.25 | value: +4% |
| Dijon win | 15% | 17% | 6.66 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Préjuce Nakoulma · Nantes |
| 61' | ⚽ | Chang-Hoon Kwon · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| coach days | 256.00 | 2113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| -0.20 |
| -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1618.25 | 1600.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.75 | 3.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| league points | 44.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.75 | 27.17 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.33 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |