← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 81% | 83% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 7.15 | fair |
| Amiens win | 6% | 4% | 17.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Mariano Díaz · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 83' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 85' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |
| coach days | 865.00 | 1230.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1826.50 | 1557.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.08 | 14.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| league points | 63.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.39 | -1.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.00 | 28.23 |
| state index | 1.42 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |