← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 42% | 41% | 2.32 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.35 | value: +5% |
| Guingamp win | 29% | 28% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Marcus Coco · Guingamp |
| 23' | 🟨 | Kévin Malcuit · Lille OSC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Edgar Ié · Lille OSC |
| 55' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Luiz Araújo · Lille OSC |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Júnior Alonso · Guingamp |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jimmy Briand · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 134.00 | 652.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1551.79 | 1582.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.56 | -19.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.79 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.57 |
| league points | 28.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 22.73 | 28.93 |
| state index | -0.76 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |