← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Fri, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 37% | 41% | 2.63 | value: +8% |
| OGC Nice win | 33% | 29% | 2.96 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Pierre Lees Melou · OGC Nice |
| 67' | ⚽ | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
| 77' | 🟨 | Walter Benítez · OGC Nice |
| 84' | ⚽ | Angelo Fulgini · Angers SCO |
| 86' | 🟨 | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Baptiste Guillaume · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Raymond Kopa |
| coach days |
| 2478.00 |
| 712.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 4.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1536.46 | 1603.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.29 | 26.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 74.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| league points | 36.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.48 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | 1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.95 |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.33 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |