← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 66% | 64% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.92 | fair |
| Metz win | 14% | 18% | 6.81 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Marcelo · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 20' | ⚽ | Marcelo · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 32' | 🟨 | Florent Mollet · Metz |
| 59' | 🟨 | Moussa Niakhaté · Metz |
| 65' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 68' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 86' | ⚽ | Mariano Díaz · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| coach days | 189.00 | 859.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1520.06 | 1818.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.62 | 5.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 22.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.48 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | 1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.10 | 24.44 |
| state index | -0.56 | 1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |