← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 53% | 57% | 1.85 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.56 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 20% | 18% | 4.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | 🟨 | Paul Lasne · Montpellier |
| 76' | 🟨 | Lucas Ocampos · Olympique de Marseille |
| 77' | 🟨 | Luiz Gustavo · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 554.00 | 342.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1790.27 | 1651.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.89 | 12.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 62.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.39 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 26.70 |
| state index | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |