← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 47% | 53% | 2.06 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.49 | fair |
| Dijon win | 25% | 23% | 3.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Chang-Hoon Kwon · Dijon |
| 35' | 🟨 | Valentin Rosier · Dijon |
| 80' | 🟨 | Steven Fortes · Toulouse FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Alexis Blin · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days | 75.00 | 2106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1564.94 | 1589.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.57 | 3.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| league points | 30.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.46 | 27.15 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |