← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Leonard, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 57% | 57% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 17% | 18% | 5.84 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Lebo Mothiba · Lille OSC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Hamza Mendyl · Lille OSC |
| 42' | ⚽ | François Kamano · Bordeaux |
| 45' | ⚽ | François Kamano · Bordeaux |
| 61' | 🟨 | Thiago Mendes · Lille OSC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Thiago Mendes · Lille OSC |
| 63' | 🟥 | Thiago Mendes · Lille OSC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Maxime Poundjé · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| venue | Matmut Atlantique |
| coach days | 79.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1621.98 | 1558.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.66 | -33.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 37.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.30 | 23.28 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |