← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoit Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amiens win | 38% | 39% | 2.54 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 33% | 2.97 | fair |
| Caen win | 29% | 27% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 20' | ⚽ | Bakaye Dibassy · Amiens |
| 21' | 🟨 | Romain Genevois · Caen |
| 30' | ⚽ | Serge Gakpé · Amiens |
| 34' | 🟨 | Gaël Kakuta · Amiens |
| 53' | ⚽ | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 72' | 🟨 | Bakaye Dibassy · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Licorne |
| coach days | 1223.00 | 3202.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1544.03 | 1530.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.84 | -26.82 |
| eye test v1 | -1.22 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.57 |
| league points | 34.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.40 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.12 | 28.49 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |