← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 52% | 54% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 19% | 3.71 | fair |
| Metz win | 22% | 28% | 4.49 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Stéphane Bahoken · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Emmanuel Rivière · Metz |
| 25' | 🟨 | Abdallah Ndour · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 28' | 🟨 | Nolan Roux · Metz |
| 38' | 🟨 | Vahid Selimovic · Metz |
| 41' | 🟨 | Pablo Martínez · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 46' | ⚽ | Florent Mollet · Metz |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jonas Martin · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 61' | 🟨 | Moussa Niakhaté · Metz |
| 64' | 🟥 | Abdallah Ndour · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 70' | 🟨 | Dimitri Liénard · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 77' | 🟨 | Stéphane Bahoken · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 77' | 🟨 | Vahid Selimovic · Metz |
| 77' | 🟥 | Vahid Selimovic · Metz |
| 79' | ⚽ | Ernest Seka · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 23 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| coach days |
| 639.00 |
| 182.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1476.35 | 1421.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.49 | -3.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.80 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| league points | 32.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.54 | -1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |