← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 46% | 47% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
| Amiens win | 24% | 26% | 4.01 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | ⚽ | Steven Mendoza · Amiens |
| 66' | 🟨 | Khaled Adenon · Amiens |
| 76' | 🟨 | Issa Cissokho · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 121.00 | 1217.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1571.17 | 1531.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.66 | 2.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| league points | 28.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 15.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.93 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 22.81 | 27.90 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |