← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 39% | 40% | 2.49 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.08 | fair |
| Caen win | 29% | 28% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Giovanni Sio · Montpellier |
| 23' | ⚽ | Ellyes Skhiri · Montpellier |
| 25' | 🟨 | Junior Sambia · Montpellier |
| 29' | 🟨 | Hervé Bazile · Caen |
| 30' | 🟨 | Ellyes Skhiri · Montpellier |
| 53' | ⚽ | Giovanni Sio · Montpellier |
| 87' | ⚽ | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 22 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 3196.00 | 335.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1544.29 | 1638.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.61 | -3.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| league points | 35.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.87 | 25.74 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |