← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 57% | 59% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.06 | fair |
| Dijon win | 19% | 18% | 5.02 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Frédéric Sammaritano · Dijon |
| 36' | ⚽ | Valère Germain · Olympique de Marseille |
| 62' | 🟨 | Lucas Ocampos · Olympique de Marseille |
| 68' | 🟨 | Morgan Sanson · Olympique de Marseille |
| 73' | ⚽ | Chang-Hoon Kwon · Dijon |
| 84' | 🟨 | Bouna Sarr · Olympique de Marseille |
| 88' | ⚽ | Lucas Ocampos · Olympique de Marseille |
| 90' | 🟨 | Baptiste Reynet · Dijon |
| 90' | 🟥 | Cédric Yambéré · Dijon |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Dimitri Payet · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 2099.00 | 546.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1599.54 | 1789.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.03 | 6.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| league points | 38.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | 1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.37 | 27.98 |
| state index | 0.36 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |