← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 55% | 55% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.64 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 18% | 23% | 5.38 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Jonathan Martins Pereira · Guingamp |
| 29' | ⚽ | Neven Subotić · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 35' | 🟨 | Marcus Coco · Guingamp |
| 52' | 🟨 | Loïc Perrin · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 65' | 🟨 | Marcus Thuram · Guingamp |
| 75' | 🟨 | Vincent Pajot · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 79' | 🟨 | Moustapha Diallo · Guingamp |
| 79' | ⚽ | Rémy Cabella · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days | 107.00 | 625.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1620.81 | 1570.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.98 | -36.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| league points | 36.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.47 | 27.58 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.06 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |