← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoit Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 45% | 40% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.46 | fair |
| Metz win | 26% | 32% | 3.69 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Nolan Roux · Metz |
| 13' | 🟨 | Jonathan Rivierez · Metz |
| 23' | ⚽ | Valentin Rongier · Nantes |
| 53' | 🟨 | Fallou Diagne · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| coach days | 168.00 | 229.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1515.80 | 1643.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.69 | -5.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.99 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 20.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.48 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.33 | 26.16 |
| state index | -0.62 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -1.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |