← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 50% | 56% | 1.96 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.64 | fair |
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 23% | 22% | 4.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 533.00 | 838.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1800.92 | 1802.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.09 | -20.87 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 59.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.27 | 1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.49 | 24.88 |
| state index | 1.06 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |