← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sebastien Moreira, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 49% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 23% | 23% | 4.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Issa Diop · Toulouse FC |
| 23' | 🟨 | Steeve Yago · Toulouse FC |
| 46' | ⚽ | Jérémy Blayac · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 87' | 🟨 | Abdallah Ndour · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 89' | ⚽ | Yaya Sanogo · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Yaya Sanogo · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Steeve Yago · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.16 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 54.00 | 624.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1572.02 | 1537.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.44 | -11.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 29.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.53 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 25.16 | 27.05 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |