← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 48% | 51% | 2.04 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.26 | fair |
| Caen win | 22% | 21% | 4.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Flavien Tait · Angers SCO |
| 11' | 🟨 | Rémy Vercoutre · Caen |
| 14' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
| 43' | ⚽ | Karl Toko Ekambi · Angers SCO |
| 74' | ⚽ | Prince Oniangué · Angers SCO |
| 78' | 🟨 | Baptiste Guillaume · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Raymond Kopa |
| coach days | 2451.00 | 3181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1607.37 | 1556.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.30 | 2.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| league points | 32.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.15 | 27.62 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.39 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |