← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 70% | 67% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 5.01 | value: +7% |
| Caen win | 11% | 11% | 9.15 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Stef Peeters · Caen |
| 46' | 🟨 | Mariano Díaz · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 63' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 3 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |
| coach days | 831.00 | 3175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.91 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1817.42 | 1559.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.23 | 17.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| league points | 51.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.56 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.48 | 26.31 |
| state index | 0.79 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.04 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |