← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephane Jochem, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 36% | 39% | 2.69 | value: +6% |
| Guingamp win | 33% | 32% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Clément Grenier · Guingamp |
| 24' | ⚽ | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
| 28' | 🟨 | Ihsan Sacko · OGC Nice |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jimmy Briand · Guingamp |
| 47' | ⚽ | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
| 58' | ⚽ | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
| 61' | 🟨 | Franck Tabanou · Guingamp |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jonathan Martins Pereira · Guingamp |
| 83' | ⚽ (og) | Marlon · Guingamp |
| 86' | ⚽ | Bassem Srarfi · OGC Nice |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 24 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade de Roudourou |
| coach days | 618.00 | 679.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 4.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1587.37 | 1653.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.01 | -20.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 68.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 35.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | 1.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.94 | 24.71 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.11 | 1.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |