← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 45% | 41% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 37% | 3.31 | value: +22% |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 25% | 23% | 3.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 129.00 | 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1660.85 | 1617.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.01 | 35.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 41.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | 1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.94 | 28.34 |
| state index | 0.72 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | 1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |