← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 90% | 89% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 6% | 8% | 16.94 | value: +39% |
| Metz win | 4% | 3% | 21.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 647.00 | 160.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1988.43 | 1517.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.71 | -17.98 |
| eye test v1 | 1.33 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.99 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| league points | 74.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.48 |
| season ppg | 2.64 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.57 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.41 | 28.43 |
| state index | 2.14 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.61 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |