← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sebastien Moreira, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 38% | 38% | 2.56 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 26% | 3.09 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 30% | 36% | 3.23 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Yassine Benzia · Lille OSC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Daniel Congré · Montpellier |
| 41' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 63' | ⚽ | Jérôme Roussillon · Montpellier |
| 87' | 🟨 | Thiago Mendes · Lille OSC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Pedro Mendes · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 99.00 | 313.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1572.86 | 1641.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.25 | 16.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| league points | 27.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 23.02 | 26.35 |
| state index | -0.53 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |