← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 66% | 64% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 16% | 4.29 | fair |
| Nantes win | 12% | 20% | 8.36 | value: +68% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Luiz Gustavo · Olympique de Marseille |
| 11' | ⚽ | Léo Dubois · Nantes |
| 35' | 🟨 | Léo Dubois · Nantes |
| 39' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
| 55' | 🟨 | Adil Rami · Olympique de Marseille |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jordan Amavi · Olympique de Marseille |
| 87' | 🟨 | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
| 90' | ⚽ | Florian Thauvin · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 519.00 | 215.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1783.10 | 1633.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.40 | -8.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 55.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.04 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.26 | 26.32 |
| state index | 0.75 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | -1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |