← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoit Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 57% | 57% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.90 | fair |
| Dijon win | 18% | 19% | 5.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 38' | 🟨 | Papy Djilobodji · Dijon |
| 45' | ⚽ | Robert Berić · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 53' | 🟨 | Romain Amalfitano · Dijon |
| 55' | ⚽ | Wesley Saïd · Dijon |
| 61' | ⚽ | Robert Berić · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 73' | 🟨 | Wesley Lautoa · Dijon |
| 89' | 🟨 | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days | 92.00 | 2071.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1620.26 | 1597.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.20 | 28.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| league points | 34.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.25 | 27.77 |
| state index | 0.71 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.05 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |