← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 42% | 35% | 2.34 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.17 | fair |
| Amiens win | 27% | 35% | 3.55 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Licorne |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1188.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.28 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1542.94 | 1647.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.26 | 9.68 |
| eye test v1 | -1.56 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| league points | 29.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 29.28 | 24.43 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |