← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephane Jochem, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 61% | 57% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.70 | fair |
| Amiens win | 13% | 18% | 7.52 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
| 38' | 🟨 | Thomas Monconduit · Amiens |
| 45' | ⚽ | Gaël Kakuta · Amiens |
| 61' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
| 67' | 🟨 | Gaël Kakuta · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 268.00 | 1181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1567.21 | 1494.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.47 | -21.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| league points | 39.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |