← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 39% | 34% | 2.50 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 27% | 3.08 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 29% | 39% | 3.33 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 73' | ⚽ | Karl Toko Ekambi · Angers SCO |
| 80' | 🟨 | Thomas Mangani · Angers SCO |
| 82' | 🟨 | Pierrick Capelle · Angers SCO |
| 88' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Karl Toko Ekambi · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 85.00 | 2430.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1512.28 | 1499.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.16 | -25.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 27.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 35.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | -1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 23.08 | — |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | -1.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |