← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 49% | 44% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.48 | fair |
| Metz win | 23% | 31% | 4.25 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Florent Mollet · Metz |
| 20' | 🟨 | Iván Balliu · Metz |
| 22' | ⚽ | Lucas Deaux · Guingamp |
| 31' | 🟨 | Yeni N'Gbakoto · Guingamp |
| 45' | 🟨 | Georges Mandjeck · Metz |
| 56' | ⚽ | Nolan Roux · Metz |
| 68' | 🟨 | Vahid Selimovic · Metz |
| 75' | 🟨 | Yannis Salibur · Guingamp |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jordan Ikoko · Guingamp |
| 83' | 🟨 | Matthieu Dossevi · Metz |
| 86' | ⚽ | Lucas Deaux · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de Roudourou |
| coach days | 603.00 | 146.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.10 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1528.86 | 1416.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.08 | -9.97 |
| eye test v1 | -1.50 | 1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.70 |
| league points | 34.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 0.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 7.20 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.21 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |