← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sébastien Desiage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 40% | 37% | 2.43 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.23 | value: +9% |
| Caen win | 30% | 29% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Florent Balmont · Dijon |
| 24' | ⚽ (og) | Damien Da Silva · Dijon |
| 33' | 🟨 | Damien Da Silva · Caen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 70' | 🟨 | Julien Féret · Caen |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 89' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 6 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 2064.00 | 3160.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1496.91 | 1476.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.62 | -0.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| league points | 32.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |