← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 57% | 59% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.66 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 17% | 18% | 5.85 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Yeni N'Gbakoto · Guingamp |
| 32' | 🟨 | Clément Grenier · Guingamp |
| 72' | 🟨 | Paul Lasne · Montpellier |
| 73' | ⚽ | Giovanni Sio · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 292.00 | 596.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 5.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1562.46 | 1526.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.07 | -33.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | -1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.79 |
| league points | 37.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.80 |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | 1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |