← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 36% | 46% | 2.73 | value: +25% |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 33% | 28% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 27% | 3.09 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Ole Selnæs · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 47' | 🟨 | Flavien Tait · Angers SCO |
| 57' | 🟨 | Rémy Cabella · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 79' | ⚽ | Robert Berić · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Raymond Kopa |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 2423.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1510.44 | 1523.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.43 | 4.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| league points | 25.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.11 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.36 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.69 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |