← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 51% | 51% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.33 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 20% | 18% | 4.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 43' | 🟨 | Yassine Benzia · Lille OSC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Lebo Mothiba · Lille OSC |
| 71' | ⚽ | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 81' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 255.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.40 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1649.17 | 1583.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.52 | -7.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| league points | 37.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 23.06 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |