← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 68% | 68% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.86 | fair |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 12% | 12% | 8.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Wahbi Khazri · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 7' | 🟨 | Hamari Traoré · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 58' | 🟨 | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 58' | 🟨 | Bertrand Traoré · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | ⚽ | James Léa Siliki · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 803.00 | 102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 4.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1750.59 | 1535.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.03 | -18.50 |
| eye test v1 | 1.71 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| league points | 48.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.53 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 23.07 | — |
| state index | 0.58 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |