← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 83% | 72% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 18% | 8.00 | value: +44% |
| Toulouse FC win | 5% | 10% | 20.00 | value: +96% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Adrien Rabiot · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Corentin Jean · Toulouse FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Max Gradel · Toulouse FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Yaya Sanogo · Toulouse FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Lassana Diarra · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Steeve Yago · Toulouse FC |
| 68' | ⚽ (og) | Issa Diop · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 3 | Shots | 21 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 10 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | — | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | — | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | — | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days | 19.00 | 619.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1492.04 | 1896.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.99 | 2.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | 1.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 2.11 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 26.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 68.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 2.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | 2.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| squad age | — | 27.21 |
| state index | 0.03 | 1.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.92 | 1.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |