← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephane Jochem, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 46% | 44% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.31 | value: +4% |
| Caen win | 25% | 25% | 3.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Jimmy Briand · Guingamp |
| 56' | 🟨 | Baissama Sankoh · Caen |
| 87' | 🟨 | Romain Genevois · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade de Roudourou |
| coach days | 589.00 | 3146.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.81 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1529.39 | 1472.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.91 | 6.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| league points | 32.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |