← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 36% | 34% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.01 | fair |
| Caen win | 32% | 34% | 3.05 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Alexander Djiku · Caen |
| 31' | ⚽ | Yacine Bammou · Nantes |
| 34' | 🟨 | Léo Dubois · Nantes |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 48' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 52' | ⚽ | Damien Da Silva · Caen |
| 57' | ⚽ | Yacine Bammou · Nantes |
| 80' | ⚽ | Damien Da Silva · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 3140.00 | 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 3.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1461.32 | 1580.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.91 | 12.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 27.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.55 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |