← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 39% | 39% | 2.47 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.19 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 30% | 30% | 3.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Younousse Sankharé · Bordeaux |
| 5' | 🟨 | Maxime Poundjé · Bordeaux |
| 25' | 🟨 | Jeremy Grimm · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 30' | 🟨 | Pablo Nascimento Castro · Bordeaux |
| 48' | 🟨 | Younousse Sankharé · Bordeaux |
| 53' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · Bordeaux |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martin Braithwaite · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 0 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 582.00 | 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1503.90 | 1563.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.58 | 2.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| league points | 27.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.62 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |