← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 85% | 84% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 11% | 8.70 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 4% | 5% | 22.50 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Yuri Berchiche · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Marco Verratti · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Júnior Alonso · Lille OSC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Giovani Lo Celso · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 64.00 | 612.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 3.61 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1509.11 | 1891.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.29 | -0.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 1.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 2.13 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 25.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 67.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 2.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | 2.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 23.10 | 26.26 |
| state index | -0.05 | 1.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | 1.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |