← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Fri, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 76% | 79% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.30 | fair |
| Metz win | 8% | 6% | 11.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 18 |
| 10 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 489.00 | 124.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1711.02 | 1438.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.42 | 59.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 1.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.73 |
| league points | 48.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 2.09 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.58 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 27.77 | — |
| state index | 1.27 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |