← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sébastien Desiage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 44% | 54% | 2.24 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.29 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 27% | 19% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Kouadio Dabila · Lille OSC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Kenny Lala · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 76' | ⚽ | Anwar El Ghazi · Lille OSC |
| 78' | ⚽ | Idriss Saadi · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Edgar Ié · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 58.00 | 576.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1500.48 | 1512.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.50 | -30.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| league points | 22.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 22.84 | — |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |