← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sebastien Moreira, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 48% | 48% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.41 | fair |
| Caen win | 23% | 22% | 4.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Ronny Rodelin · Caen |
| 35' | ⚽ | Paul-Georges Ntep · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 64' | 🟨 | Yann M'Vila · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 78' | ⚽ | Jonathan Bamba · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 83' | 🟨 | Stef Peeters · Caen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gabriel Silva · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days | 57.00 | 3132.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1493.35 | 1468.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.39 | 0.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.50 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| league points | 23.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.81 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |