← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 51% | 47% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.29 | value: +10% |
| Amiens win | 20% | 20% | 4.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Pierrick Capelle · Angers SCO |
| 37' | 🟨 | Bakaye Dibassy · Amiens |
| 54' | 🟨 | Bongani Zungu · Amiens |
| 60' | 🟨 | Mateo Pavlović · Angers SCO |
| 90' | 🟨 | Khaled Adenon · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Raymond Kopa |
| coach days | 2402.00 | 1153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1517.37 | 1530.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.17 | -15.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.64 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| league points | 22.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |