← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 44% | 52% | 2.22 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.46 | fair |
| Dijon win | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Jean-Eudes Aholou · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 18' | 🟨 | Baptiste Reynet · Dijon |
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Kenny Lala · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 33' | ⚽ | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 45' | ⚽ | Oussama Haddadi · Dijon |
| 72' | 🟨 | Dimitri Liénard · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Kenny Lala · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 22 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 568.00 | 2029.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 9.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1504.72 | 1487.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.82 | -13.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| league points | 24.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 9.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |